The CIS of Tezanos, in its last survey before the Galician elections, bets practically all its cards on the loss of the PP’s absolute majority. The survey predicts for the popular led by Alfonso Rueda 42.2% of the votes and between 34 and 38 seats. The median forecast of the CIS is, therefore, 36 deputies, two below the majority that would guarantee him a return to the head of the Xunta.
The survey points to a spectacular rise for the BNG which, with 33.4 of the votes, could achieve between 24 and 31 deputies. It is a very wide range that on average predicts 27 or 28 seats for the nationalists. If this result is confirmed, the left could take over the Xunta since the CIS predicts 18.1% of the votes and between nine and 14 deputies for the socialists. Its median would therefore be 11 seats.
With the average data that the survey offers for the left, BNG and PSOE could reach the 38 positions that mark the majority and, therefore, the Galician presidency. In fact, in percentage of votes, the CIS gives them 51.5%.
The poll shows, however, a very considerable loss of momentum for the socialists who, in just one week, would have lost two points in voting intention. In the CIS survey on the 5th, the PSdeG was predicted to have 20.1% of the votes and between 13 and 15 seats. Now, the CIS prediction confirms that the great rise recorded by the BNG is occurring at the expense of the socialists.
The survey predicts 2.8% of the ballots for Sumar, a very low result under which it could move between zero and two seats. The same hesitation between staying out of Parliament and making a place for yourself is what is shown in the survey in the case of Vox and Ourense Democracy. The radical right party could monopolize 2.1% of the ballots and DO 0.5%. In both cases, these results could be translated according to the most optimistic forecast into one deputy for each.