The countdown has begun. There are only a few days left until the polls open in Galicia. Since the elections were brought forward, everything pointed to the fact that, once again, the PP of Galicia would remain untouchable in its absolute majority. Nevertheless, after a campaign stained by arrival of the pelletsthe national key speech of the PP and the recent Feijóo party confession -he studied the amnesty and pardoning Carles Puigdemont-, they can increase the left’s chances of regaining power in Galicia. The polls are beginning to show a change and leave the PP’s absolute majority in Galicia up in the air.
All the polls right now point to the following scenario: the PPdeG would remain leader, the BNG would be on its heels and the Galician socialists of the PSdeG would be the third force. But now Sumar, who will not appear alongside Podemos, enters the equation.
The D’Hont law makes it difficult for Podemos to enter parliament
The truth is The 5% electoral barrier does not make it easy for those parties with fewer votes. Its about D’Hondt electoral system, a method of distributing seats and councilors in proportion to the number of votes obtained by political parties. This mechanism discards candidates that do not reach a minimum percentage of ballots to “avoid excessive fragmentation of the Chamber.” And this makes it difficult for parties to the left of the PSOE to obtain parliamentary representation.
It already happened in the last regional elections in 2020. The Galicia en Común coalition obtained 51,630 votes and remained at 3.94%, that is, one point away from being able to enter parliament. Now, although none of the latest polls give Podemos representation in Galicia, the probability that Sumar will enter parliament is increasingly greater, which opens the door for a left tripartitecomposed of the BNG, the PSdeG and the formation of Yolanda Díaz, can take over the Xunta.
The absolute majority of the PP, in the air
Although he has governed Galicia since 2022, these are Alfonso Rueda’s first elections as a PP candidate for the Xunta. Since the leader of the Galician PP advanced the elections to February 18, the CIS has published three surveys about the possible results that these regional elections could yield: January 25, February 5, and February 12.
Although the three polls give the PPdeG options to gain an absolute majority, The latest Tezanos barometer reduces Rueda’s chances of success for the first time. That is, the popular candidate has many options of obtaining the 38 deputies necessary to revalidate the absolute majority, but the CIS ranges also show that he could obtain 34 seats, which gives some hope to the left to govern.
Although everything indicates that Rueda could follow the line of his predecessor and govern alone, all options are open. If in other autonomous communities Vox has been key to forming a Government, in Galicia it may not obtain representation. In this latest survey the CIS gives him between 0 and 1 deputy, just like Ourense Democracy. In the event that the Popular Party did not obtain an absolute majority, the seats of these parties would be key for the right to govern.
How does the left arrive?
The BNG, which has been the main opposition party for years, arrives in very good shape for the February 18 elections. Since the first survey, The CIS has shown that the party led by Ana Pontón could increase in seats. If in the poll at the end of January, the range managed by the CIS was between 20 and 23 seats, on February 5 it became 22-26. This latest poll has shown an increase between 24 and 31 seats. It is striking how this increase could be related to an increase in support among people over 75 years of age. In this group, the percentage of vote estimates has gone from 8.7% in the first survey to 15.9%.
The polls also suggest, compared to the rise of the BNG, a notable decline of a PSdeG with José Ramón Gómez Besteiro at the helm. The party has gone from having between 15 and 17 seats in the CIS to dropping to 9-14 in the latest survey. In this scenario, the socialists could only play a key role by supporting the BNG to preside over the Xunta, as they already did, but in reverse, between 2005 and 2009.
If the PSdeG has a difficult time, the accounts with which Podemos arrives at 18F show the possibility that the purple party will continue without representation in the Galician Parliament. Yes, Sumar would do it, with Marta Lois at the head and together with Esquerda Unida, a coalition to which the CIS gives between one or two seats. Those of Galicia are presented as key elections for the formation headed by Yolanda Díaz. It is the first electoral test that it has faced since the general elections of 23J, and the first in which the party could obtain representation in a regional parliament. If they win those two seats, they could be key when it comes to forming a government if the PPdeG does not finally obtain an absolute majority.
The sum of the BNG, PSdeG and Sumar could make the tripartite take over the Xunta. The last left-wing government in the Xunta was in the hands of the socialist Emilio Pérez Touriño with the support of the Galician nationalists. The coalition held out until the emergence of Alberto Núñez Feijóo on the Galician political scene, managing to retain up to four absolute majorities in 2009, 2012, 2016 and 2020.
The overwhelming success of the current leader of the PP deepened the crisis that the left-wing and nationalist space was already suffering. While the BNG was losing strength in the Galician parliament, several left-wing formations, under the Alternativa Galega de Esquerda (AGE) coalition, found their place and obtained two more seats than the BNG, with the PP leading and the PSdeG as the second force. But after the failure of the alternative left, in the last elections of 2020, the Bloc went from 6 to 19 seats, surpassing the PSdeG and proclaiming itself as the second force. Now, the tables have turned and it is the Bloc that remains strong as the main opposition force and with the possibility of attracting that dissatisfied vote of a PSdeG that is increasingly weaker in the polls.