The disaster of Samuel García’s candidacy gives impetus to the opposition front of Xóchitl Gálvez

Samuel García has made such a big turn in politics in recent days that it has gone 360 ​​degrees. He remains in the same place, effectively, but such an astracanada opens important questions in the electoral campaign and will have consequences, also for him. Most believe that the opposition can rub its hands once the only alternative has momentarily disappeared for those who do not like either of the two large blocs, the ruling party and the opposition, and that Xóchitl Gálvez will be the best positioned to pick up the prize. disenchantment of the Citizen Movement (MC) after the latest events. For the same reason, they believe that President López Obrador and his party are losers in their strategy of encouraging García to divide the opposition, adding one more party in the running for the June 2024 elections. Not everything has been said, however. , because MC will have a new candidate early next year, but until then the lead of the others may widen.

With his ears down, Samuel García returns to the governorship of Nuevo León and leaves MC without a presidential candidate, just now that the man from Monterrey was advancing in popular sympathy, cutting advantages with the opposition front, which is now called Fuerza y ​​Corazón por México . Who wins from it? “I believe that in the short term Gálvez benefits because he remains the only alternative to the ruling party and that is an advantage that he can make profitable in the two months that remain until MC names a new candidate,” says the historian and analyst of the Humberto Beck School of Mexico. “I also think that this matter complicates the victory for Morena, because García would contest sectors more inclined to the opposition. But in my view, the great loser is the Citizen Movement, which has earned an image of irresponsibility, disorganization and frivolity. In some way it has destroyed that idea that was had of the party as something alien to the traditional defects of Mexican politics.”

Even if MC raises its head, this mess that has cost the presidential candidate to lose, Beck believes, will give an advantage to the two candidates, the Morenista Claudia Sheinbaum, and the PAN member Xóchitl Gálvez, who are already presenting their teams seriously and without improvisations .

President López Obrador has supported Samuel García so much in recent weeks that his political opportunism seemed obvious. If he did not need it to win the presidency, which it seems not, since Sheinbaum has an enormous advantage over his competitor for that, perhaps his move was aimed at joining forces in Congress and the Senate, where if he does not obtain a majority Broad will require alliances, even if they are specific. Strength and Heart for Mexico accused García on several occasions of dancing to the tune that López Obrador played. “This represents a big setback for the president, since he exposed a move that he believed to be masterful and that has gone very wrong. We have seen that the hypocrisy that he so reproaches conservatives for is an instrument that he frequently resorts to. Why so many flowers to a poorly educated and answerable little boy who wanted to intervene in the presidential race and, even worse, be president of the Republic?” asks political analyst Soledad Loaeza, surely with an answer.

“Perhaps in Congress Samuel García could have favored the president, but we must not forget that the presidential election always draws votes for the legislature, both locally and federally,” says María Eugenia Valdés Vega, expert in Electoral Processes in the Iztapalapa campus of the UAM. In other words, citizens will not differentiate their presidential ballot much from that of Congress. He believes that García’s campaign, although short, was harming the interests of the Front, but he does not consider that his departure from the field of play “helps much to improve Xóchitl Gálvez, because the citizens who oppose Morena do not find much alternative in this coalition of the PRI and the PAN. They have strong contradictions that prevent the candidacy from strengthening as it should,” she believes. “It seems to me that the effects of the farce cannot be measured except in the medium or long term,” she adds.

Citizen Movement already accused strong internal bankruptcies when it decided to participate separately, without allying itself with the opposition, in the June elections. Some of the great voices of the party were dissatisfied with this, such as Enrique Alfaro, the strong man in Jalisco, who rudely expressed his disagreements with the head of the oranges, Dante Delgado. A few hours after García returned home, several local leaders have announced in Mexico City that they will add their support to the Front candidates. The fissures emerge again. “MC’s ideological lack of definition makes it a party of personal leadership. The impression is that Samuel García could have benefited from future agreements with Morena in Congress. In any case, the most likely thing is that the party will use its votes to support in the legislature the bloc that best suits it in each case, but it is called upon to bear great responsibility because it can be the balance of the balance in many cases,” he says. Beck. And he believes that this is not the course that the party is following, more situated, he believes, in the phosphorescent frivolity that has become the emblem of the party, even adopted by Dante Delgado. The “phospho phospho” that alludes to the tennis shoes of García’s wife, Mariana Rodríguez, “reveals that García’s popularity is the main thing in a party that claimed to be social democratic and that has given up the desire for a robust project in exchange for popularity and the prospect of victory,” adds Beck.

“Samuel García has remained before public opinion as a scoundrel who has not understood that politics is a serious matter that affects the lives of many people. It seems to me that now he will have more difficulties governing the State than before. Who can trust him? “Who can believe in his good judgment?” Loaeza questions. In his opinion, this matter “is one more episode of the degradation of politics that we have experienced for more than ten years.” Chapters like this force Mexicans, he believes, to show their “disgust for politics” and he does not rule out that in a scenario like that some “would enthusiastically embrace an authoritarian government that cleans and orders.” Loaeza wonders what the abstention rate will be next June.

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